The ongoing wet spell across Jammu and Kashmir is forecast to weaken following Friday afternoon, according to Meteorological Department Director Mukhtar Ahmad. Following this, a lull is expected to set in, with no substantial or sustained rainfall anticipated across the region until July 27.
However, conditions are set to change again starting July 28, as a new weather system is likely to bring heavy downpours, raising the risk of landslides, mudslides, and sudden flash floods.
Reaffirming the accuracy of the previous forecast, Ahmad noted that the region experienced uninterrupted rain through the afternoon of July 23. Over the past two to three days, south Kashmir and the upper catchment areas bore the brunt of particularly heavy precipitation, with showers resuming once again on Friday morning.
The current spell is primarily impacting the Chenab Valley, the adjoining districts of south Kashmir, and areas along the Pir Panjal range. While this rain is expected to persist until midday Friday, it should gradually taper off afterward.
Until July 27, no widespread or continuous rainfall is on the horizon. From July 28 onward, though, the incoming system is predicted to predominantly affect the Jammu plains, the Chenab Valley, and the Pir Panjal range, while parts of the Kashmir Valley may experience light to moderate showers with the possibility of isolated intense bursts.
Ahmad cautioned that this fresh spell could set off shooting stones, mudslides, and landslides, and he did not rule out the occurrence of flash floods in susceptible low-lying areas. On a more reassuring note, he mentioned that while water levels in rivers and streams had risen sharply due to the recent rains, data from the Irrigation and Flood Control Department now shows they are progressively receding.
Nevertheless, he strongly advised the public to avoid unnecessary travel near rivers, streams, and other water bodies where levels remain high. Travelers, transporters, tourists, and the general public have been urged to postpone trips to hilly regions, given the continued poor weather and the heightened danger of rockfalls and landslips.
Additionally, the MeT director highlighted that the prolonged precipitation has left the ground heavily waterlogged, which significantly increases the vulnerability of mud houses in at-risk areas. He stressed the importance of strictly adhering to all advisories issued by the administration and the weather department to avert any untoward incidents in the coming days.
